Business over Tapas (Nº 231)

Editorial:

Many of us foreign residents live in tourist towns. Few of us, however, have businesses there, and we live quietly (we hope) sharing our beach-views, our beautiful towns and our pleasant lifestyles, with an ever-increasing number of summer visitors.

But, as the season changes, the hotels begin to close for the winter. The tourist shops, souvenir stalls, boutiques, the discos and night clubs, many restaurants and bars, also close their doors for a rest after their hard labours of the summer months. Mostly, that ‘rest’ keeps them shut and often ‘away’ until Easter comes around and the whole process begins again.

Some places remain open of course, and we residents are their regular clients, welcomed back after the insanity of the season.

Other towns, perhaps a few miles inland, may not have tourism. No beaches, no chiringuitos, no hotels, no choo-choo trains and not even a tourist department in the town hall. Of course, they receive visitors, but it’s a much quieter life.

And in the winter months in those places, almost all the local businesses stay open.

Housing:

‘More than half a million home sales forecast for 2018. Property sales in Spain are forecast to reach 526,000 units in 2018, 9.3% more than the 481,000 transactions expected this year, and 21% more than last year, according to Anticipa, one of Spain’s biggest real estate servicers. All this provided that mortgage conditions and the Spanish and Euro zone economies behave as forecast...’. Found at Mark Stücklin’s Spanish Property Insight here.

Tourism:

‘The Junta de Andalucía points out its effort to keep the region as an attractive destination for the British market after Brexit. The Minister of Tourism and Sport, Francisco Javier Fernández, said last week that Andalucía has not suffered with the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union "in the slightest bit of tourist attraction for the British market", while stressing the effort of the Andalusian Government in this sense "so that when its final exit from the EU, Andalusia remains an attractive destination and would not lose competitiveness in that area...’. The story is at La Vanguardia.

‘Marbella is preparing its own stand for London’s World Travel Market this week. The huge event, from November 6 to 8, will see the Costa del Sol hotspot attempt to ‘recover’ its image...’. From The Olive Press here.

Seniors:

From Sur in English: British expat organisations on the Costa del Sol have welcomed news of a new website designed to offer support to older and vulnerable members of the community. Support in Spain is an online guide aimed at British residents over the age of 50 as well as other foreign residents who may need extra help or advice.

Support in Spain is here. ‘This website provides details of official Spanish government and non-government organisations as well as many others in the voluntary sector. It is designed to help you quickly find contact information and a brief description of the services offered to support you, or a friend or relative, on a wide range of issues. It is an independent, not-for-profit project from the University of Birmingham with the support of the British Consulate, Málaga’.

Finance:

‘The overhaul of self-employed workers' system gets under way. Self-employed workers' Social Security contribution system is 'too rigid', 'outdated' and 'insufficient', says Spain's Social and Economic Council (CES), whose chairman has proposed new ways of making the régime more affordable for average-income workers whilst ensuring a higher and steadier inflow of cash for the State...’. From Think Spain here.

‘Spain’s unemployment rate dropped to 16.4% in the third quarter, its lowest level since 2008’, says El País here. It adds: ‘Spain recovers the level of nineteen million people with work, according to the EPA (labour force survey) from this summer, something that hasn't happened since the summer of 2009’.

...Not that every province is doing so well. In Almería, the third quarter unemployment rate is 27.65%. Only Córdoba is worse at 30.21%. From Almería Hoy here.

Público is concerned about the high cost of resolving the ‘crisis’ in Spain. ‘...Since the PP came back to power in November 2011, until the end of the first half of 2017, the accumulated national deficit was 447,020 million euros, which means an average of 81,276 million euros per year, clearly above the 74,223 million euros of the second Zapatero legislature. Despite the slogan that "you should not spend what you don't have", with Rajoy in the Moncloa, 222 million euros of deficit are generated each and every day...’.

Politics:

The latest opinion poll on party support shows Podemos falling to fourth place behind Ciudadanos at just 15.3%. The PP has risen in one month (despite the alarming Gürtel conclusions) by over half a point to 31.4%. The analysis is at El Mundo here.

Corruption:

While we were looking at Catalonia, the Gürtel Inquiry back in Madrid drew to its conclusion says Magnet here. ‘...In concluding remarks, the Investigator's office left some unforgettable comments. He stated that "there is ample evidence that the Partido Popular benefited from the criminal activity carried out" and that the money from the commissions not only enriched the pockets of some politicians ... All this before wrapping up his speech with a somewhat viral word about the "benefit" or not of the PP: "Those who did not benefit were the State and the Spanish people since it was a benefit for the party with identified acts and other services and expenses given to the PP as for example those of some building works at its headquarters"...’. The 37 accused await sentencing. El Diario reports that ‘The prosecution insists that the PP used a black accounting system that grew thanks to the contributions of businessmen. That the party used the money to pay its leaders an opaque remuneration and to pay campaign expenses and that the money was also used for other purposes: they bought media stocks such as Libertad Digital, paid funds to the current president of RTVE and that Luis Bárcenas, the party treasurer, kept back a sum for himself.

Catalonia:

As expected, Carles Puigdemont finally declared independence last Friday 27th, and, equally as expected, Madrid imposed its article 155, and the president of the Catalonian ‘Parlament’, Carme Forcadell, dissolved the regional government pending the results of newly-called elections for December 21st. Puigdemont then travelled to Brussels where he appears to be intending to stay, for the meantime. There was a brief suggestion of a government in exile, although that seems to have passed. Puigdemont says in a speech on Tuesday that he looks forward to new elections: “...The elections proposed by the Spanish state are accepted as a democratic challenge. If they had wanted to hold a plebiscite to legitimize the Article 155 and its policies, we will respond to it and to the international community as a whole. We agree that voting is how problems are solved. Not jailing anyone. Elections are a challenge that we face with all our might...”. He adds “...we will respect the results of December 21st – but, will they?”.

‘The drama between the Spanish government in Madrid and the pro-independence government in Catalonia, which reached a new stage of tension Friday when the separatist government in Barcelona declared independence, has featured two characters familiar to students of Spanish politics: the martyr and the strongman. Carles Puigdemont, who was until Friday the Catalan government’s president, has suggestively cast himself in the role of the martyr. In the weeks since the Oct. 1 referendum, in which some 90 percent of voters chose independence, Mr. Puigdemont has portrayed himself as the victim of a villainous Madrid administration... From The New York Times here.

From The Irish Times, come stories of Irish residents in Catalonia who say ‘We could be in for some turbulent times’, as readers in the region describe what they witnessed during the independence vote.

Meet the three hundred Ukrainian fascists who have (kindly) offered to travel to Spain to resolve the Catalonian Question. El Mundo has the story here.

Anything up to a million people demonstrated in Barcelona on Saturday in favour of the region staying in Spain. Who was behind this surge of public patriotism? Some not very nice people, says Spanish Revolution here.

From España Exterior: ‘A total of 224,844 Catalans residing abroad will be able to vote in the regional elections on 21 December’. It’s unclear about Catalonians in Spain itself – presumably they will have a postal vote too.

From Spanish Property Insight: ‘The geopolitical reasons why Spain can never afford to lose Catalonia’.

Catalonian Independence Update

by Andrew Brociner

In last week's issue, based on some conjecturing, it looked likely that the figure for Catalonian independence was just slightly higher than 39%. This number finds some confirmation in opinion polls. According to a Catalan poll conducted by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió, by interview, on 26 June – 11 July, 2017, those in favour of independence were 41,1%, and those opposed, 49,4% when given a simple yes or no question. And according to a poll by El País on 28 October, 2017, 41% were in favour, while 55% opposed independence. Therefore, this figure of 41% for independence seems quite robust, before and after the events. It corroborates what we have been saying for some time, that had the government allowed the vote to take place, the anti-independence voters would have prevailed. All of what took place in the recent weeks, the clashes, the violence, the revocation of rights, the abrogation of autonomy, the detention of independence leaders and the dissolution of parliament could have been avoided. Moreover, the 1,000 businesses which fled Catalonia to take up their headquarters elsewhere could also have been prevented. The conflict continues as history is still being written. Not only could all of this have been precluded, but it would have taken place in a peaceful democratic context.

It is clear that Catalonia is divided on the issue and that the majority remains against independence, despite what Puidgemont declares, based on a small and biased turnout. It is not enough to base independence upon. However, the central government certainly is to blame by not allowing a democratic vote to take place, but rather using repression to provoke a situation degenerating into chaos. But, this is not only about independence anymore. It is about rights and democracy. What happens next remains unclear as Puidgemont has sought refuge in Belgium which offered him asylum. That this country, the seat of the EU, makes such a gesture is significant, as notwithstanding the EU's reluctance to interfere in the country's internal affairs, it is a clear sign that it understands the lack of democracy prevalent in Spain at present. The Spanish government wants him to appear in court later this week and could, as he has refused, issue an arrest warrant. It appears that Puigdemont is even willing to present himself again in the next Catalan elections, but he does not fancy himself sitting in the clink alongside the two Jordis until then. He stated from Brussels that he is there to speak freely, to expose how completely lacking in democracy Spain is, that the Spanish justice system is politicised and partial, and to state that self-determination is a right, and that he wants dialogue. He does have a point.

Courts:

The Prosecutor of the National Audience wants to imprison the twelve members of a rap group for two years and a day for the words to their songs. La Insurgencia say their lyrics represent ‘a generation without hope’. More at Público here, or on YouTube (for example) here (with subtitles).

Brexit:

From The New Statesman: ‘The Departing #1: The exodus of EU citizens from the UK will happen in 2018. If you work in science, academia, the NHS or other public services, you may have already noticed that EU citizens are leaving the UK in their thousands. By the end of next year, many more will have gone’.

Media:

El País in English offers the latest in the newspaper’s remarkable twist of facts, by... twisting the facts the other way. Here’s ‘Trapped in the clichés of Spain’, where ‘The crisis in Catalonia has demonstrated that the Iberian stereotypes persist in foreign media outlets’. Indeed they do, and Spain, as the article points out, is not really about Flamenco, bullfighting and all those other off-the-shelf clichés. The essay tends towards criticism of the US media (even down to the preferred, and colorful, American spelling throughout) since firstly, you know, Spain is a very modern State, and secondly, you’re completely wrong about Catalonia.

‘Informe Semanal’ – the Saturday evening news magazine on TVE1 – is the digest of the week’s events, squeezed, inevitably, through the vision of the Government-controlled

television. This last edition was, nevertheless, a shock to viewers as its main story was about, uh, news manipulation. They even had the opinion of a university expert who specialises in propaganda talking about the lies used by the Catalonian TV news and local media. El Español was watching as well, calling Informe Semanal a parody of itself, reaching ‘untold heights of manipulation’. It calls the show ‘surrealist’. Indeed, here are the ten most overt manipulations in recent times from Informe Semanal.

While all the independent Spanish national TV channels – Antena 3, Telecinco, laSexta and Cuatro –broadcast Carles Puigdemont speaking from Brussels on Tuesday, TVE1 thought its viewers would prefer a debate about Halloween. El Diario reports here.

Diario16 has an angry and eccentric essay here on propaganda called ‘Yugohispania’.

For an even harsher opinion piece (from an anonymous source), here’s one called ‘Spain is not a democracy: In its short history as a nation-state, Spain has never been a democracy, it is not a democracy and has no intention whatsoever of becoming one’ which appears at the end of Colin Davies’ Thoughts from Galicia Wednesday edition. It’s quite hair-raising.

Various:

‘The electric bill has entered an upward spiral from which it could only emerge if the weather situation in the Iberian Peninsula changes radically. Rain and more wind are needed to activate the hydroelectric and wind power plants, which can lower electricity prices. Meanwhile, consumers continue to see their bill increase month after month. The one arriving in the next few days, corresponding to October, will see an increase by average of 7% compared to September, according to the National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC)...’. From El Diario Vasco here.

There’re more problems to a drought than just not having much water, as El Diario explains here. For one thing, the price of electricity goes up when there’s no hydro-electric power.

The unpopular AVE plans for Murcia are discussed in a video put out by the Plataforma Pro-Soterramiento de Murcia. Video and article at La Crónica del Pajarito.

From Spanish Property Insight: ‘Madrid and Barcelona ranked amongst safest cities in Europe’.

The Ministry of Hacienda’s budget for Education falls in 2018 to just 3.8% - a historic low. More here.

Some Spanish superstitions with The Olive Press here.
Those rip-off 901 and 902 numbers have a solution – you can ring their land-lines at the normal rate. Probably get through faster, as well. Here are all the phone numbers for every 901 and 902 company.

The Jewish Press tells us how the Spanish Inquisition began!

How to make ham croquettes, with España Fascinante (in English).

UK TV satellite reception (sent by a friend):

The lower third of the country has lost all BBC. Dishes of 3 metres are receiving no signal in Costa del Sol. Most dishes in the Málaga region are 1.2m (1.3m vertically) which will just get the Europe beam used by Sky's pay channels. However, no BBC, ITV, Channel Four and associated channels will be received. If you have an Irish Sky card you will be able to watch C4, E4 More 4 Ireland. The only ITV channels which can be received are ITV 2,3,4 in HD as part of the Sky HD pack.

The cut off point seems to be around Mojácar. To the north, some dishes are still working. To the south, there are no reports of any dish of any size still receiving the BBC. In Quesada, 1.8m is OK, as is a 1.9m in Alicante. In Benidorm, 1.2m is OK. Mazarrón seems to be OK with 1.8m. A 2.4m in this region gives good rain margin.

In Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque country, many dishes have stopped working. 1.2m to 1.5m may now be needed. Galicia now needs 1.5 metres, as does northern Portugal. In León, a 1.5 receives nothing, as does an 80cm in Vitoria-Gasteiz. In the Balearics, many dishes are still working.

Barcelona and Catalunya are now in a dead spot, with no measurable signal. Previously, 80-90cm dishes were used. The signal starts to appear north of the French border. Southern Catalunya is better, around Tortosa 1.8 m dishes are working. There are reports of people planning 3.0 metre dishes in Catalunya. It remains to be seen if they will work.

See Spain:

The only excommunicated and damned village in Spain. It is a hamlet of some 80 registered inhabitants and is about 100km from Zaragoza city. Its name is Trasmoz and dates from the XIII century, the era of sorcery and killing the wicked witches, and in 1252 Trasmoz was excommunicated by the Monastery in Veruela (Zaragoza) converting it into a secular territory and remains so today, unless the Pope overturns the order...’. Typically Spanish has the report here.

‘This Catalan Town Has Already Broken From Spain, Physically at Least’. The story of Llivia, a Spanish town surrounded by French territory, is told by The New York Times.

Solar Power

Q&A from Reddit here: Q. Electricity prices through the roof (again) and this following one of longest, hottest and sunniest summers anyone has ever seen. The good people of Portugal were able to make huge advances in their solar (and other renewable) power industries and it seems to be the trend with most of Europe. So again - where is our clean and cheap energy?

1. It is a long and sordid tale...

Due to a series of miscalculations by both the government and private investors, during the "boom" years, Spain not only built toll highways, airports, and museums that weren't really needed and couldn't be supported later, but also far more electrical generating capacity then it needs. Many natural gas combined cycle power plants (GCC) were built in the mid 2000s with the assumption that Spain's economy and therefore electrical consumption would continue to grow, and because these plants are cleaner than coal. These plants are now far underutilized, and the people that own them are losing money. Check out the data for 2016... The 25GW of gas plants installed in Spain only generated 25TWh of electricity... meaning that they only operated for about 1000 hours of the year, or 12% of the time!!

Spain actually does have 4GW of solar plants, most of which were installed in 2008-9 during the "solar boom" caused by a temporarily high feed in tariff (FiT) just before the financial crisis and the government switching from PSOE to PP. In those years Spain was known as a model and for a brief period was consuming a large chunk of the World’s solar panels, enough to impact prices worldwide. Unfortunately the solar program was not managed extremely well... the tariff was probably too high (4 to 5x market costs), that they actually got many more installations that year than they expected, and much of that money did little more to enrich individual investors that got in (and in many cases had the connections to capture the difficult to achieve grid-connection authorizations). When the crisis hit immediately after, it was easy for the new government to severely (and much too quickly) reduce and later eliminate the FiT, and even change the rules on the people who had already installed systems, creating a sense that the Spanish government could not be trusted. So, the Spanish solar bubble lasted two short years and since then almost no new solar installations have been made.

The people that own those money-losing GCC plants (Iberdrola, Gas Natural Fenosa, etc), have, let’s just say, some very strong influence with Rajoy´s government. Any additional renewable capacity in Spain would further reduce how many hour the GCC plants run for... since they have the highest marginal generating cost, they are the last to come in on the daily markets. Therefore, in Spain we have a very strong, and very successful lobby preventing not only new solar farms but more importantly widespread residential use of solar in Spain (ie the infamous "solar tax") despite the fact that Spain is as you say, quite sunny and has relatively expensive electricity, meaning that with any sort of sane auto-consumption laws it would be a no-brainer economically to install solar on practically every single-family home in Spain.

I personally, as much as I love solar (I work in solar) think Spain should focus on immediately retiring all 10MW of coal plants, which currently generate more than twice as much electricity as those GCC plants, while produce far more CO2 and other pollutants per MWh. Due to the glut of capacity, Spain is in my opinion in a very unique position in being able to just shut coal down without so much as batting an eye, as the GCC plants could pick up the slack no problem.

Finally:

Barcelona Gipsy Klezmer Orchestra - Djelem Djelem: beautiful. On YouTube here.