Editorial:
Nigel Farage may be a little quieter for now (one must hope for miracles), but British Prime Minister David Cameron wants his referendum on Europe soon. Will the British get their 'Brexit' and, if so, what would happen to the two million Britons living in Europe as a direct result of the unthinkable? Will we all fit on Salisbury Plain? (Exaggeration or not, there's no one to represent us beyond some senior British businessmen with their own agendas).
Housing:
'When Spain's property bubble burst in 2008, the country was plunged into an economic crisis that threw millions of people out of work. Now, after six hard years, and even though hundreds of thousands of properties stand empty, building has restarted in the country...'. Yahoo Finance is bullish here.
Mark Stüklin's Property Insight is also, mainly, sanguine about the future: 'Four Reasons for Optimism, One for Concern'. Here.
Britain's Daily Mail has an article full of cliché about a 'dream home' in 'sunny Spain' that narrowly averted being torn down by the Junta de Andalucía. The story is re-told on Channel Five's Britain's Horror Homes (here). Then, says the newspaper, '...last year – five years after their ordeal began and thousands of pounds out of pocket – they finally received the news they longed for. A Spanish judge ruled that their house should not be torn down and the demolition order should be thrown out of court...'. A non-story perhaps. But once again we ask, how much foreign exchange will not be coming to Spain thanks to the apparent anti-British reputation (justified or otherwise) of the Junta de Andalucía abroad?
Tourism:
'Europe has spoken. And Spain has triumphed, yet again, as the top holiday destination for Europeans planning to splash their cash in 2015...'. From The Olive Press.
Finance:
From Expatica. 'A guide to Spanish taxation in 2015 for ex-pats, with up-to-date information on income tax, VAT, property tax and other taxes for residents and non-residents in Spain. If you are living and working in Spain, you will be liable to pay Spanish taxes on your income and assets and will need to file a Spanish tax return...'. Here.
Goldman Sachs has published a devastating report on Bankia. Bolsamanía reports here.
'In Harvard University’s recent presentation of its projections for growth, in 127 countries throughout the world up until the year 2023, the report predicts that Spain will be the fastest growing of the large countries of the euro-zone, with an annual rate of GDP growth of 3.7% on average...'. The upbeat article from Kyero.
Politics:
The PSOE is in retreat. According to Zoom News, party affiliation is down to just 150,000 people and the party owes a whopping 70 million to the banks. Felipe Gonzalez is being kept aside (his suggestion of a grand coalition between the PP and PSOE hasn't gone down well with the followers of party leader Pedro Sánchez), and the planners have been obliged, for want of anyone else, to rely on the startled face of ex-President Rodriguez Zapatero as a wise ex-leader and statesman...
Susana Díaz lost her second chance of becoming President of the Junta de Andalucía last Friday after the three main opposition groups, PP, Ciudadanos and Podemos, all voted against her candidacy. It becomes clear that her calling for early elections back in March was a mistake, as we are now in the time of local elections – and no party can afford to discourage their voters by becoming participant in allowing Susana to take Andalucía down the road again... A new vote will be taken today, Thursday 14th May, but a new scandal involving an improper adjudication of a contract will likely scupper things once again (David Jackson here). Furthermore, Ideal reports that Susana Díaz must not negotiate the dismissal from politics of ex-President Manuel Chaves – following pressure from within the party. The PSOE-A have threatened to 'paralyse' Andalucía unless someone relents...
Debates? The Partido Popular says they won't hold any TV debates with either Ciudadanos or Podemos 'since they don't have any parliamentary representation'. ABC has the story.
Like Valencia, Murcia is another Partido Popular stronghold. But, like Valencia, the voters are turning away from the PP. Corruption, unemployment and the arrival of Ciudadanos are all taking their toll, according to a survey by the CIS and featured in El Mundo.
The day before elections is 'reflection day' – either invented for those who can't make up their minds, or to give the campaigners a chance to soak their feet. No politics and everything quiet. Now the 15M people ('Los Indignados'), those who think that Spain needs more change than a few new mayors and regional presidents, are planning mass (illegal) meetings on May 23rd in cities across the country, starting of course with the Puerta del Sol in Madrid. El Mundo has more.
The results of the British elections and the referendum on a possible 'Brexit', are analysed by El Diario here. If the British leave the EU and throw out all European immigrants, including the 200,000 Spaniards living there, what will happen to the 'one million Britons' living in Spain? Nothing good.
Local elections – May 24th:
Having a full war-chest is important during elections, and no one has more to spend that the Partido Popular. El País reveals that the PP have a budget for the local elections of 20.5 million euros. The PSOE is spending 7.8 million.
So, who might pact with whom? Party strategists more or less would abide as follows: PP (would pact with Ciudadanos). PSOE (neither PP nor Bildu). Ciudadanos (game for anything) and Podemos (any leftist pact. Anti- PP). Euro Mundo Global has the story. Indeed, Pedro Suarez from the PSOE and his 'I'll never pact with the populists' has changed over the past few months to 'we are the only party that can work together with Podemos'. Story here.
There aren't many municipalities, but there are a few where there are more foreign residents than Spaniards, says El Día, and yet they are woefully under-represented in their Town Halls. More here (Jessica Simpson in Mojácar is the only foreign party leader in the whole of Spain that we know of).
Corruption:
A scandal in Palma de Mallorca – prostitutes allegedly working 'for free' to entertain the local politicians and the police to avoid inspections in their clubs. Other police taking 'protection money' and enjoying under-age sex. All in an El Mundo exposé here.
'...Naturally, if you want to survive and thrive in the business you have little choice but to engage in such practices. However, you wouldn’t talk about them over the phone — not in this age of rampant industrial espionage, and especially not with the NSA trying to track just about everything every foreign multinational says or does. And you certainly wouldn’t discuss them over an unsecured phone line; even your average two-bit mafia goon knows that!...'. An amusing Wolf Street yarn here.
Various:
'The Royal Spanish Football Federation (RFEF) will go on strike from Saturday, May 16, coinciding with the penultimate day of the First Division League. According to a press release, the RFEF is complaining of not having seen a draft law approved by the Council of Ministers concerning distribution of royalties from TV coverage And inspections by tax and Social Security authorities on football clubs have forced people out of work, the Federation reveals...'. From Eye on Spain.
The importance of bullfights in popular Spanish culture. An interesting article on the impact of la Tauromaquia as it affects our way of life here: some of the phrases, some of the images. Story with pictures and video at El Mundo.
The Spanish embassy in Washington apparently wanted the right candidate for a position, says El Ventano here, so the questions on the test were rather odd. For example: 'How many followers on Facebook does the group Spain and Arts have?'. Luckily, one person knew...
And keeping with Washington, the Washington Post has a story about Spanish working productivity. It's not all it should be says the paper, because Spaniards are always tired... because, you see, the country is in the wrong time zone. Huh!
It's always interesting to see a new web-page to download films and other material. In honour of our President's efforts to stamp out piracy, the latest is called Peliculas Rajoy.
'Seven reasons why Spain's the best place on earth. Don't get us wrong, Spain isn't perfect. It has struggled out of a crippling economic crisis as well as having high pollution levels and a perpetually corrupt political system. But despite all that, it is still the best place to live in the world. And here is why...'. Article found at The Local.
'A royal battle is simmering here. On one side is the Prado, a renowned repository of art and a showcase of Spanish culture that draws huge numbers of tourists. On the other is a brash newcomer, emerging onto the scene in layers of gray granite from a hillside near the baroque royal palace of Spanish kings. In advance of its opening, the upstart, the Museum of Royal Collections, is insisting that the Prado surrender four paintings, including its top two attractions — “The Garden of Earthly Delights” by Hieronymus Bosch and a sumptuous 15th-century depiction of the descent of Christ from the cross by Rogier van der Weyden...'. A story from The New York Times. The Prado, by the way, says 'no'!
'The International Brigades were the volunteer military formations of left-wing sympathisers from all over Europe and the USA recruited, organised and trained by the Communist International (and secretly controlled by Stalin's Soviet Union) to fight on the Republican Government's side against Gen. Franco's Nationalist rebels in the Spanish Civil War of 1936-39. This book is the history of the British Brigade written by Wiliam Rust, a Communist functionary who edited the party newspaper, the Daily Worker...'. Review of 'Britons in Spain. The History of The British Battalion of the XVth International Brigade', by William Rust. Available from La Librería de Cazarabet here.
El País interviews the last surviving member of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade, who fought on the Republican side against Franco. Video (in English) and story here.
Five simple Spanish dishes, known the world over. See them at Bon Viveur (en castellano).
The future Ferrari Theme Park in Barcelona – details at The Telegraph here.
See Spain
Estepona art – those murals! A blog from Eye on Spain. Barcelona art – more murals: from The Huff Post.
A Housing Market Update
by Andrew Brociner
In the last four issues, we have been examining the housing market and have found no indication of any significant price increases. We have rather found much to suggest that demand is lacking for different reasons. And although we are off the low points, we are still very much in consolidation mode. This week, we add some recent evidence which supports this finding.
The latest statistics of Tinsa have come out, for the first quarter of 2015, and the results are not encouraging. Most regions have registered a decrease in prices again. As a whole, prices decreased in Spain by another 3,1% in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2014. There was only one region showing an increase – the Baleares – and this by only 0.5%. Everywhere else showed declining prices.
This latest statistic, according to Tinsa, has pushed the national average decline to 40% since its peak in 2007. Obviously, as we have seen in a previous issue, some regions experienced a far larger decrease, such as Cataluña and Madrid, with the decline from peak to trough now around 50%. Some smaller cities have registered declines by as much as 57%. For all intents and purposes, looking at a graph of house prices, one cannot help but think that much of the gains during the boom have been erased and we are increasingly going back to the pre-boom period.
At present, prices are equivalent to their values at June 2003 nationally and March 2003 for the coast, some twelve years ago. Looking at INE data, as in a previous issue, using prices per square metre, the figure today is similar to that at the first quarter of 2004, for houses in general.
This latest statistic might not look very encouraging, but it is a confirmation of the situation Spain finds itself in as a consequence of profligacy and short-sightedness during the years before the crisis. For all the reasons we have discussed in the previous issues, there is a lack of demand for houses which, until something changes in a significant way, continues to impinge on prices.
Finally:
And now for something completely different (it had to happen, we won't do it again!).
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